05 February, 2000 - President Clinton announced the ATF was going to go after about 1000 of the largest gun dealers due to the fact that about slightly more than 1% of the dealers account for slightly more than half of the firearms traced by the feds.  That may sound good to some of you on the surface, but when you see how they came up with this number, you'll realize a lot of innocent and perfectly legal gun dealers are being accused of something they have absolutely no control over.  They are victims of statistical shenanigans.  This is a slick scam that could only be conceived by a bureaucracy with too many people sitting around with too much time on their hands.

Statistics are a pain, I know, but hang in there with me on this one and read it through a couple of times if it doesn't make sense.  It will come together for you.  There is only one thing worse than understanding statistics...it's writing about the stuff.  But, you need to understand what schlepps Clinton and Schumer are to understand their supposed "crackdown" on firearms dealers is a statistical scam that can only be conceived by lawyers turned politicians.

Vifredo Pareto (1848 - 1923) was an Italian economist who formulated this well known principle:

‘In any series of elements to be controlled, a selected small fraction in terms of number of elements almost always accounts for a large fraction in terms of effect’.

Pareto determined that approximately 80 percent of the wealth in Italy was owned by about 20 percent of the people.  His principle is sometimes known today as the 80/20 rule.  He continued looking at other examples and found that his idea was indeed a statistical principle and not just an educated guess, as in a theory.

We can look at modern day examples to help understand Pareto's principle.  His principle is the foundation of one the basic materials management rules used every day around the world.  Approximately 20% of the inventory items within a business represents about 80% of the value of inventory.  Good materials managers recognize this principle and manage the dickens out of the twenty percent to minimize inventory investment.

In fact, if you were to look at your own wealth, about 20% of the items you own represent 80% of your wealth.  Big ticket items like home equity, 401K investments and automobiles probably make up the majority of your personal wealth.  The other 20% of your wealth is made up of a washer/dryer, tools in the garage, various pieces of furniture in your house and so on.  Unfortunately, if you're like me and have no wealth, you might find that 80% of your personal debt is caused by 20% of the items you own.  You get the picture.

So, let's look at how Pareto's principle was used by the White House spinmeisters.  Let's use an example of 1,000,000 gun sales a year nationwide.  The actual number is higher, but by using a nice round number it will be easier for both you and me to understand.  If all dealers in the U.S. sold 1,000,000 firearms last year, 20% of the dealers (16,000) would have sold about 800,000 firearms and the rest of the 200,000 firearms will be shared by the approximately 64,000 other dealers.  Put simplistically, 20% of the dealers will get 80% of the all the business.  They may work harder, offer better incentives or prices, or advertise heavily to achieve their success.  It can be for a multitude of reasons, including having stores in and around heavily populated metropolitan areas.  The bottom line is that the majority of sales will be made by a relatively small minority of dealers.

Now, if we look only at the 16,000 dealers who are selling the most, we can further break them down and say that of the 16,000 selling the most firearms, 20% of those dealers (3,200 of them) will sell 80% of the 800,000 firearms or about 640,000 of them.  Not bad if you're one of the 3,200 dealers.  Additionally, if we take it one more step down, we'll see that of the 3,200 dealers, they too will be split by Pareto's principle at about 80/20.  About 640 dealers will get approximately 80% of that business, or about 510,000 firearms sales.  That translates to slightly less than 1% of the total gun dealers will sell about 51% of all firearms sold in the U.S.

How can a relatively small group of gun dealers get most of the business?  Using Pareto's principle again, you will find that about 80% of the population live in and around 20% of the largest cities in the country.  Trust me, Pareto's principle is not a theory, it is a principle of statistics.  Demographics play an important role in determining who gets most of the business.

Our little mathematical exercise showed that slightly less than 1% of the firearms dealers created about 51% of the sales.  This is starting to sound interesting isn't it?  Clinton announced that about 1% of all dealers generated a little more than 50% of guns traced.  To a statistician this is no big deal.  This is what is supposed to happen.  If approximately 1% of the firearms dealers generate about 51% of the sales, it would stand to reason these same dealers, since they sold the most firearms, would have slightly over half of the firearms traced by the ATF traced back to them as the original seller of the firearm.  Was a crime committed by these dealers?  Of course not.  They are nothing more than victims of statistical calculations and Clinton is playing it for everything it's worth.

The facts are, all dealers are subject to annual inspections of their records by the ATF.  Every person in this country is subject to a background check for handgun purchases.  You can be assured that if irregularities are occurring amongst the top selling dealers, the ATF would shut them down.  They have the power to do so.  Yet, they continue to run their businesses year after year simply because they are doing nothing wrong.  The ATF has absolutely no reason to shut them down.  The problem is, dealers have no control over what happens to the firearm after it's sold.  The firearm may be resold several times over a five or ten year period or stolen and end up being used in a crime.  But, because a dealer happens to sell more firearms than others,  they have a higher probability of having a firearm traced.  They have become a victim of the mathematical wizardry of Chuck Schumer and Bill Clinton. 

Are dealers responsible for a firearm sold multiple times between private parties over a five year period simply because they were the first dealer to sell the firearm?  Of course not.  That's like telling a  new car dealer they're responsible for the actions of a drunk driver who killed a family in an accident.  Driving under the influence kills about three times more people in a year than are murdered by firearms.  Where's the crackdown on car dealers?  Are you beginning to see the ridiculous nature of the so-called "crackdown?"

How will the Clinton/Schumer so-called "crackdown" affect you?  There will be a new cost increase to you as a gun buyer, not unlike cigarettes in recent years.  The liberals are burning both ends of the candle.  First, to increase the cost of firearms that you pay through licensing scams disguised as a "safety" program.  Second, to increase the cost of doing business as a gun dealer by requiring more employees to support paperwork and regulatory requirements caused by increased ATF harassment.  These efforts, coupled with increased costs due to gun maker lawsuits, most commonly known as a government extortion, are a multi-prong attack on Second Amendment rights targeted at lawful citizens and the firearms industry.  This is an effort to make firearms ownership the exclusive domain of the rich and famous and discourage citizens of modest and middle income from purchasing a firearm.

The only outcome of this so-called "crackdown" by Clinton and Schumer will be a pedestal for them to stand on so they can make this a key issue for the rest of the election cycle.  We will never see any "convictions of rogue dealers" prior to or after the elections are over.  The ATF may file charges against a dealer or two on orders of the White House just to make the evening news, but NO ONE will be convicted in court as a result of this "crackdown" of the top selling dealers.  I'll make that prediction right now and you can hold me to it.  The largest dealers in this country, who are no doubt the most profitable, will not risk losing their multi-million dollar businesses by knowingly making illegal sales to criminals, particularly in light of the fact they are scrutinized by the ATF annually and have been for years.  It would be the equivalent of business suicide. 

Are there "rouge" dealers out there?  Possibly, but they aren't the large dealers.  If anything, it might be a small time dealer trying to survive and out of desperation may bend the rules or flat out violate the law.  They need to be put out of business, no question about it.  But, they won't make the evening news for Clinton so they are being ignored.  That tells you where Clinton's moral values are placed.  He's going after the big boys in a scam that is worthy of an Oscar for a leading role and for Schumer as best supporting actor.  Not because there is illegal activity involved, only because the statistics make it sound like there is a big problem out there with the largest gun dealers. 

Clinton and Schumer will continue with the emotional rhetoric that a mere 1% of dealers seem to be the problem.  Al Gore will chime in on the issue as well.  Clinton is doing this to hand Gore an election issue.  They will try to get Americans to believe that if we rid society of these 'rouge' dealers, criminals will no longer have access to firearms.  The facts are, Pareto's principle never changes.  If Clinton were able to shutdown the top 1% of the dealers in the country, which won't happen, Pareto's principle says that of the 99% left in business, 1% will generate about 51% of the sales and hence, generate about 51% of the ATF traces.  Life will simply go on and a whole new crop of law abiding dealers will become the new victims of statistical attacks from the left.

The real culprit in this country is the failure of the Clinton Administration and various states to prosecute criminals who illegally posses firearms.  We've stated from day one when this site came online almost three years ago that illegal firearms possession by criminals is almost always dropped or plea bargained away.  Our judicial system just doesn't think it's important enough to go after these people.  Yet, if you're a law-abiding American, with no criminal record and are charged with illegal concealed carry, don't expect your case to be dropped.  There is a concerted effort to apply the law selectively in this country and you are the target, not the criminal.  These people in office find it all too easy to adversely affect our constitutional rights under the guise of making "America safer", when in fact, all they are doing is keeping their friends in the legal profession employed at the expense of law-abiding citizens.

Clinton and Schumer are two disgusting examples of lawyers run amok in the political system.  If we fall for their latest ploy, we are a disgusting example of how easily we are duped by slick politicians and government bureaucrats.  They win and we lose.